THE Bureau of Meteorology has declared that El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are underway.

Warmer and drier conditions will be more likely over spring and summer for parts of Australia, under the influence of these two climate drivers.

Bureau of Meteorology Climate Manager Dr Karl Braganza said both El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) tend to draw rain away from Australia.

“Over spring, their combined impact can increase the chance of below average rainfall over much of the continent and higher temperatures across the southern two-thirds of the country,” Dr Braganza said.

“The Bureau’s three-month forecast for Australian rainfall and temperature have been indicating warm and dry conditions for some time.”

“An established El Niño and positive IOD reinforces our confidence in those predictions.

“Based on history, it is now also more likely that warm and dry conditions will persist over eastern Australia until autumn.”

El Niño events increase the risk of extreme temperature shifts, like heatwaves and hotter days.

Increased fire danger in south-eastern Australia is associated with El Niño conditions.

A positive IOD contributes to greater fire risk over southeast Australia in spring, while El Niño contributes to elevated fire risk over both spring and summer.

The Bureau made the El Niño declaration after three of the four El Niño criteria were met, including a sustained response in the atmospheric circulation above the tropical Pacific.

The last time Australia encountered both El Niño and a positive IOD was in 2015.

“Around two-thirds of Australia’s driest years on record were during El Niño however, no two El Niño or IOD events or their impacts are the same,” Dr Braganza said.

“El Niño is part of a natural climate cycle that affects global weather and occurs on average every three to five years.”

Bureau Senior Climatologist Catherine Ganter said the Indian Ocean Dipole can have as large an influence on Australia’s rainfall and temperature as El Niño.

“A positive IOD often results in below average rainfall during spring for much of central and southern Australia and warmer than average maximum temperatures for the southern two-thirds of Australia,” Ms Ganter said.

“Similar to El Niño, the IOD describes a natural climate cycle brought about by sustained changes in the difference between sea surface temperatures in the tropical western and eastern Indian Ocean.”

Since 1960, when reliable records began for the IOD, there have been around 16 positive IOD and 15 El Niño years.
Seven years have seen positive IOD and El Niño events happen at the same time.

Rural Aid CEO John Warlters said the Bureau’s announcement confirmed many producers’ fears.

“Today’s announcement of the El Niño weather pattern will bring a lot of unwelcome memories to the surface for our farmers, who’ve been anxiously watching land and waterways dry up,” Mr Warlters said.

“Thousands of farmers are already managing their land with a view to drought, but today’s announcement makes that approach all the more important.

“The past drought was regarded as the worst in living memory for the majority of the country, and it’s understandable that many farmers are scared of going through that again,” Mr Warlters said.

“We’re encouraging farmers to reach out and register with Rural Aid now.”

Rural Aid offers primary producers a range of assistance measures including financial, hay, drinking water, counselling and volunteer assistance.

“This El Niño declaration is a particularly upsetting moment for our farmers.

“It means conditions are likely to get worse before they get better,” Mr Warlters said.

“I’m encouraging farmers who are finding themselves overwhelmed to give our rurally-based counselling team a call for a free chat, to make sure they’re in the best possible position they can be to take on the upcoming seasons,” Mr Warlters finished.

Primary producers are urged to register online at www.ruralaid.org.au or by calling 1300 327 624.

Rural Aid’s counsellors can be reached at 1300 175 594.

Meanwhile, Farmers for Climate Action is calling for urgent action to limit climate change as it emerges farmers are officially facing an El Niño weather pattern after three years of La Niña.

Already some farmers, including Farmers for Climate Action member Peter Lake who farms near Grafton on the NSW North Coast, are officially in drought conditions after battling floods twelve months ago.

“It turned from mud to concrete in a couple of weeks and suddenly everything was just dry.

“From flood to drought, climate change is making the changes more extreme,” Mr Lake said.