THE expected East Coast drenching is the result of a “perfect storm” of circumstances”.

The Bureau of Meteorology put out a Flood Watch on Sunday 2 March, alerting the upper Mid North Coast region to the after-effects of Tropical Cyclone Alfred, moving in from the South Pacific.

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“Rainfall associated with Tropical Cyclone Alfred has the potential to cause major flooding along NSW coastal rivers from the Queensland Border to Port Macquarie, with the locations and severity of flooding dependent on the track of the Tropical Cyclone, and flooding may develop from late Wednesday, and continue until at least the weekend,” the BOM alert stated.

“Tropical Cyclone Alfred is forecast to move southwards parallel to the coast before tracking westward, bringing heavy and locally intense rainfall from late Wednesday over the South East of Queensland, and the Northern Rivers and Mid North Coast of New South Wales, and continuing on Thursday, Friday and into the weekend.”

The resultant outlook further south, around Port Stephens and Newcastle, is grey and wet, with 80 percent to 90 percent chance of rain every day, all week.

TC Alfred is one of three cyclone systems that have been tracked across the South Pacific, with TC Seru and TC Rae stringing further west of Alfred.

The wet weather does not bode well for a quartet of major events, starting with the long-time favourite of Motorfest on Saturday 8 March, the next Myall River Festival on 9 March, the Hot Rod event over the following weekend, and the Hawks Nest Senior’s Concert on Saturday 15 March (although the concert is the only one set indoors).

Hopes recently expressed by the NSW Rural Fire Service may also be dashed.

The previously forecast ‘fine weather’ was supposed to provide opportunities for hazard reduction burns.

“As we approach the end of this fire season, we must take advantage of these conditions to address the backlog of hazard reduction burns and ensure our communities are as prepared as possible for the next fire season,” Commissioner Rogers said on Friday 28 February, before the BOM’s major rain forecast.

Several of the regions, from Tweed Heads to the Hunter, may have to wait another weather cycle before they are dry enough for burning.

By Thomas O’KEEFE